
Title | : | A Banquet of Consequences: Have we consumed our own future? |
Author | : | |
Rating | : | |
ISBN | : | 1760141712 |
ISBN-10 | : | 9781760141714 |
Language | : | English |
Format Type | : | Kindle Edition |
Number of Pages | : | 353 |
Publication | : | First published August 26, 2015 |
The factors that caused the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 have not been addressed, notes Satyajit Das in this brilliantly clear-eyed account of the state of the world economy. Global debt today is higher than it was before the crisis. The big banks, bailed out by taxpayers at the height of the GFC, are now bigger than ever, by an astonishing 40 per cent. The problem of unfunded and unsustainable welfare entitlements remains unresolved. In most developed countries, economic growth, employment, income and investment are still struggling to return to pre-crisis levels. Meanwhile the developing countries have not become the new drivers of global prosperity they were expected to be.
The crux of the issue, argues Das, is that economic growth cannot continue indefinitely. The reasons for this include demographic changes, lower rates of innovation, slower improvements in productivity, the increasing scarcity of natural resources, the impact of global warming, the reversal of globalisation, and the rising inequality within and between nations. The strategies deployed by governments to promote growth have failed. What's really needed is unpopular structural change, which will result in a reduction in wealth and living standards. World leaders know what to do, they just don't know how to get re-elected after they've done it. People don 't want to hear that their time of plenty has reached the end.
Starting with the long period of expansion that followed the end of World War II, A Banquet of Consequences traces the cycle of booms and busts that culminated in the GFC, working through to the present day and outlining a future without growth. It looks at the ill-advised policies implemented by governments that have left jobs, investment and living standards stagnant while driving prices of shares, property and financial investment ever higher, creating the conditions for a financial crash on a scale even larger than the last crisis.
The end of growth has vast consequences for us all, among them the increasing difficulty of finding a secure job with an adequate wage, buying a house and saving for retirement, a loss of trust in banks and political processes, and, perhaps most importantly, the impact on future generations, who will be forced to bear the cost of the problems.
Satyajit Das is well known as a commentator and author, having anticipated the 2008 crisis and much of what has happened subsequently. He has penned both reference works and two international bestsellers, Traders, Guns & Money and Extreme Money. Written for the lay reader,
A Banquet of Consequences: Have we consumed our own future? Reviews
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"Sooner or later everybody has to sit down to a banquet of consequences."
An immensely important and extremely relevant, well-founded analysis of our society's current economic and social predicaments.
Most of the reflections are written making use of a dense, stylish and comprehensive (and also adequately cross-referenced) approach, both analytical and literary wise. A mere example (the whole thing is quotable):
"The mid-1980s saw the rise of the finance economy. This was driven by the deregulation of the financial sector; a rising appetite for debt and risk; growing wealth and savings that needed to be invested; the requirement to manage exposure to the increasing volatility of interest rates, currencies and commodity prices in a deregulated environment; and, most importantly, the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system. The fact that states and their central banks now controlled the supply of money, and through it the economy, was crucial in the evolution of the finance economy.
Under the influence of financialisation, debt levels increased rapidly. The range of financial instruments and services expanded; the sector became large relative to the size of the real economy, and a major contributor to growth. In previous eras the creation, production and sale of goods and services were the means to success. Now, the structuring and trading of financial products representing claims on businesses and underlying activities was the path to wealth. Financial engineering was to ultimately become more important than real engineering."
I also need to add that the book is generously endowed with quotes from other sources: I found the selection truly stellar, of mind-boggling awesomeness quality.
2 blemishes.
Primo: "In Cyprus and Portugal, the value of deposits was compulsorily written down by regulators in order to force customers to absorb the banks’ losses." Well, not in Portugal, at least not yet. What happened here, in the cases of at least three banks already, was that some depositors were swindled into converting their cash deposits, supposedly guaranteed by a fund (that is broke, as everybody knows, but that's beside the point) into a "100% bank guaranteed" investment application with a better return. Yes, they were convinced that the money was deposited, in some savings account. But by then, it wasn't. The book's assessment is wrong, at least for the moment.
Secondo: "Bitcoin, originally intended for anonymous payments for online purchases of illicit items"... This statement has to be in the top ten (on second thought, make it the top three) of the most stupid utterances I ever endured. WTBF is this unqualified inanity doing in this book?! -
An insightful perspective on financial affairs.
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Das provides a barrage of facts and figures in this, and tries to tie it all together at the end of each section with a pithy quote from a notable figure/writer on the conclusion that should be taken. I ended up skimming through bits, with information not being retained because it wasn't narratively compelling. It is ultimately disappointing that his interpretation of the information provided leads him to maintain the same constructs, and not attempt to address any of the systemic issues that has caused this situation.
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The author suggests that we consumed our own future, and that our economic system is very unstable. However, this is a widely recognised view by now. The book would be much more valuable if it contained some ideas on any options that should be explored to remedy the current malady.
Some of the points made during the reading:
The 1987 stock market crash, the 1990 collapse of the junk bond market, the 1994 great bond market massacre, the 1994 Tequila economic crisis in Mexico, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, the 1998 default of Russia, the 200 dot-com crash. These one-in-ten-thousand-years events seemed to occur every year or so.
There are two major instruments available to policymakers:
- fiscal, or budgetary policy,
- monetary, or interest rate policy.
The policies, especially quantitive easing helped stabilise conditions by lowering borrowing costs and allowing high debt levels to be managed, but did not restore growth or create sufficient inflation. The predictable failures were reminiscent of the observation of Helmuth von Moltke, a nineteenth-century head of the Prussian army: “No battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy”.
Quantity theory set out the relationship between money and prices:
Q * P = M * V
Where:
Real Economy = Quantity (Q) times Price of goods and services produced (P)
Financial Economy = Money supply (M) times the Velocity (or circulation) of that money (V)
Milton Friedman believed that, based on this connection, increasing money supply creates inflation, as higher monetary claims on real goods and services create higher prices. Robert Solow observed that everything reminded Friedman of money supply. He added that while everything reminded him, Solow, of sex, he thought it wise to keep it out of the media.
In practice, increased money supply was offset by reduced velocity of money. The liquidity supplied to banks did not flow into the economy in the form of loans. Instead the money was deposited as excess reserves with central banks, reflecting weak credit demand and an unwillingness to lend.
In 2010 the wealthiest 10 percent of US households owned 70 percent of all wealth, while the top 1 percent owned 35 percent. The bottom 50 percent of households owned 5 percent. -
"A Banquet of Consequences" is a book written by economist and financial expert Satyajit Das that discusses the economic and financial challenges facing the global economy in the 21st century. In the book, Das argues that the world is facing a number of complex and interconnected crises, including rising income inequality, environmental degradation, and financial instability, and that these challenges require a new approach to economic policy and governance.
Das discusses a range of issues, including the impact of technology on the economy, the increasing influence of China and other emerging economies, and the role of central banks in managing economic crises. He argues that traditional approaches to economic policy are no longer sufficient to address the challenges of the modern world, and that new thinking and bold action are needed to build a more sustainable and inclusive economic system.
"A Banquet of Consequences" is a thought-provoking and timely examination of the economic and financial challenges facing the global economy, and is an important resource for anyone interested in the future of economic policy and governance.
GPT -
Satyajit Das's style sometimes requires a concerted effort to plough through a sandstorm of facts and figures. However, this is a bold and comprehensive summation of the current global financial situation, how it got to where it is and, essentially, what that could actually mean for the future.
Of course, the modern financial world itself is - partly by purposeful design - labyrinthine so don't expect a clear picture to emerge from the text, but Das manages to fill in enough of the lines to give the reader a solid grasp of the reality of the current economic situation, which is clearly very different from that espoused by the constant rhetorical drone of the media and governments worldwide.
Everyone should read this book; it is worth the effort, and for those who complain that it is short on solutions, it may be an idea to read it again but this time with both your eyes and your minds open. -
Five star book written by a three star author. It hits you with fascinating facts on a range of issues vital to our species.
As long as you can bear some ill-though and plainly false statements, unsurprisingly not backed by fact, then you will find this a great read! -
A good overall introduction of where we've gone wrong but not a lot new to think about ...a ashame because Das is a top geyser! :-)